Get Paid to do Math

Those crazy folks at DARPA are at it again. They have just announced that they are accepting grant proposals for the 23 hardest math problems. If you think you have a unique insight into developing a mathematical theory modeling virus evolution, or can build a stronger theory for isometric and rigid embedding that can give insight into protein folding, or heck, if you just want to read a bunch of really big words, you should check out the full announcement.

While I don't have quite enough experience with higher math to entirely understand the full scope of the 23 math problems, it is interesting to see what the DoD believes are the most important math challenges of the 21st century.

Election Projections

The first thing you notice upon opening FiveThirtyEight.com is the overwhelming number of charts and graphs that fill the screen. The site, which gets its name from the number of votes in the Electoral College, has a simple mission: provide the best possible projection of the presidential election results. While I think the results of polls and predicting the results of the election are over emphasized in the news media, I really like this site because they share the methodology they use to generate their daily projections. Once you begin to read the FAQ on their statistical methodology you realize the sheer enormity and audacity of their undertaking.

FiverThirtyEight.com summarizes its methodology as follows:

1. Polling Average: Aggregate polling data, and weight it according to our reliability scores.

2. Trend Adjustment: Adjust the polling data for current trends.

3. Regression: Analyze demographic data in each state by means of regression analysis.

4. Snapshot: Combine the polling data with the regression analysis to produce an electoral snapshot. This is our estimate of what would happen if the election were held today.

5. Projection: Translate the snapshot into a projection of what will happen in November, by allocating out undecided voters and applying a discount to current polling leads based on historical trends.

6. Simulation: Simulate our results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection to account for the uncertainty in our estimates. The end result is a robust probabilistic assessment of what will happen in each state as well as in the nation as a whole.

If that's not technical enough for you, you should check out the detailed description of the whole process that goes into generating the daily results. It's enough to make any statistician's mouth water. The bottom line is that FiveThirtyEight.com's creators have generated a statistical model that is quite robust. They even accurately predicted several unexpected results during the primary season including Clinton's margin of victory in the Indiana primary.

A little perspective

A little perspective

Does continuing coverage of the financial crisis have you down? Today’s comic from XKCD does a good job of putting things into a broader perspective. Looking at the height of everything from people to the edge of the known universe on a log scale makes you realize just how tiny our problems.
Click on image for a larger view.

Why I Vote Democrat

I was going to post about my recent trials and tribulations with online dating, but in the face of the impending economic crisis, I have suspended my virtual self-matchmaking until Friday, after which time I will post on that topic.

Look at the following quote from The New York Times in an article by Herszenhorn and Hulse in an update as to bailout negotiations:

"Republicans accused Democrats of trying to add benefits for special interest groups, including labor unions and advocates of affordable housing, while Democrats accused Republicans of trying to undermine the efforts to limit executive pay at firms that seek government help and trying to change accounting rules to benefit big business."

So do Republicans support 14 hour work days and unaffordable housing? I don't understand how this supposedly mainstream party can be against labor unions, affordable housing and CEO pay limitations. Their faith in the free market has really served our nation well.

On another note, I think most people have seen through McCain's publicity stunt of a VP selection to realize the only thing transparent about Sarah Palin is her record (and maybe the blouse she wore in the Miss Alaska pageant). For those who hadn't realized this yet, this exchange from her interview with Katie Couric solidifies her lack of preparedness and the possibility of her being a national leader, now or ever, has grown increasingly frightening:

COURIC: Why isn't it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries; allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

PALIN: That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the—it's got to be all about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health-care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing. But one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today, we've got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation. This bailout is a part of that.

Maybe they should start Palin out on multiple choice questions in these interviews. Not only did she dodge the question quite ineffectively, but it seems she incoherently attempted to mention any domestic catchphrase that crossed her mind in a desperate shot in the dark at an answer to Couric's question. Blind shots in the dark may be how it's done in Alaska where the sun doesn't rise for months at a time, but in Washington DC, even the most inept politicians can answer a question with some coherence.

From the Front Lines of the War on Evolution

Since the Dover ruling, in which Judge Jones struck down the Dover School District's Intelligent Design teaching standards, not much has been heard from the anti-evolution movement. Unfortunately, in recent months the Discovery Institute and its Bible thumping allies have started to rear their ugly heads again.

It started in April, when Ben Stein released Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed. This piece of propaganda, thinly disguised as a documentary, is based around the idea that supporters of ID in academia are persecuted by main stream scientists. Stein makes a fallacious argument that the the firing of professors who support ID and forbidding it to be taught in public schools is a conspiracy of "Big Science" and a violation of academic freedom.

Academic freedom is the anti-evolution movement's new vector of choice for infecting public school curricula with their religious propaganda. In June ID proponents were successful in convincing the Louisiana State Legislature to adopt language that allows science teachers to present non-scientific alternatives to evolution as part of their right to "academic freedom." This interpretation of academic freedom, which essentially amounts to allowing science teachers to teach creationism, is quite different than the definition supported by the American Association of University Professors. They define it as freedom to publish and conduct research. Last time I checked, most high school teachers don't get a lot of publications in.

Finally, this month, the Discovery Institute their own ID text book called Explore Evolution. From the reviews I've read, it seems like a pretty poor book for many reasons. If you want to read a biology professor tearing the text a new one, click here. While the EE might be terrible, it is disturbing that the anti-evolutionists are developing new vectors for the introduction of creationism into science curricula.

Antievolution.org is a great resource for up to date coverage of the anti-evolution movement and analysis of its tactics. Be sure to check it out.

Making Peace with Mediocrity

Pittsburgh Public Schools has come up with an interesting plan to increase student achievement: they've made 50% the lowest grade a teacher can give for school assignments. The rationale behind this is to give students a chance to earn a passing grade at the end of the semester even if they fail the first quarter terribly.

In my experience teaching this is absolutely the opposite of what you do if you want to increase student achievement. To quote Jamie Escalante/Edward James Olmos, "Students will rise to the expectations." The opposite of this statement is also true. Children are adaptable. Once they realize that they can still scrape out a "C" at the semester if they do no work for for the first quarter some students will cut back on the amount of work they produce.

In the biology classes last year we did took the opposite approach to PPS: we did not give passing grades for anything less that 70%. By the end of the year, a lot of students realized that they couldn't just scrape by with a minimal amount of work and greatly increased their effort. I guess what I'm trying to get at is that as far as I'm concerned, a district wide lowering of expectatoins is a good way to lower the quality of education for an entire school district.

Soda v. Pop: the Map

At odds with your buds over the "correct" name for carbonated non-alcoholic beverages in your region? Well look no further than this map courtesy of the folks at the Strange Maps Blog.

Apparently someone has taken the trouble to color-code each county in the U.S. based on whether the majority of residents call carbonated sugar-water Soda, Pop, or God forbid: Coke. I have heard in the green and purple counties, where "Other" prevails, people call Pop things like "Sodi" or "Drink". Yikes.

An Introduction to Astrobiology Rapped at Ya

How much do you know about astrobiology? If you find yourself scratching your head, you should probably check out the music video NASA Magazine commissioned Jonathan Chase aka "Oort Kuipir" to produce: Astrobiology 2008.



The rap is in a similar vein to Kate "Alpinekat" McAlpine's LHC rap. These songs make me envision a utopina future where boring textbooks are replaced with educational raps.

Whacky Election News Roundup

We bring you three stories today from the political front:

First, Libertarian party nominee Bob Barr has filed suit to remove John McCain and Barak Obama from the ballot in the state of Texas. According to this press release from Bob Barr's website, the Republican and Democratic parties missed the deadline to file notice that they were planning on running in the state.

It has been 8 years since the antics of the 2000 presidential election. Plenty of time to make sure all states have functional voting systems, right? Plenty of time to make sure that antiquated technology or unproven new technologies don't disenfranchise voters, right? WRONG. CNN is carrying a story on voting problems facing several swing states. They note that the Election Assistance Commission has not notified states about critical electronic voting machine failures. Failures of these types left 20,000 Colorado voters unable to vote in 2006. A recent report by the Century Foundation and Common Cause found that 10 vital swing states have not addressed significant voting problems since the last election: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

What do you do if you are in a critical swing state and it looks like your party might not win your states electoral college votes in November? Try to mobilize you base of support? Make sure your supporters get out and vote on November 4th? That's not what the Republican Party of Michigan is doing. Instead they are trying to keep people from voting. Yay democracy! Michigan law allows election officials to challenge peoples right to vote at poling places. The republican party has a list of people whose mortgages have been foreclosed. They are planning on making sure that people who have lost their homes, don't use their former addresses to vote in the upcoming election. Keep in mind that in Michigan, 60% of subprime loans were given to African Americans. Kindof makes you vom a little in your mouth right?

In lighter, non-election news, today is Talk Like a Pirate Day. Make yourself a pirate cake and celebrate!

Yellow, green, orange with bling, scraper bikes is on the scene

Tyrone Stevenson has started something big. The self-proclaimed Scraper Bike King began applying the same aesthetics from scrapers—East Bay slang for tricked-out, late model sedans with large colorful rims—to bicycle design. What started as a hobby for Stevenson has snowballed into a movement complete with its own anthem and, of course, a youtube music video.

To me there are two very exciting aspects of the scraper bike scene. First there is the sustainability part: scraper bikes are made from fixed up used bikes and their wheels are decorated with brightly colored foil candy wrappers. It’s also exciting to see a large number of youth embracing bicycle culture over car culture.

Secondly, building and riding scraper bikes is being promoted as positive alternative to violence and drug dealing in some of the most violence-ridden neighborhoods in Oakland. Stevenson himself was selling drugs and on the verge of going to jail until he found an alternative channel for his anger and frustration in bicycle design. The scraper bike scene give kids in Oakland something positive to belong to. It’s not uncommon to see a group of 20+ scrapers cruse through some East Oakland streets, or posters promoting the group that say “Real Gangstas Ride.”

Be sure to check out NPR’s story on scraper bikes.

Indian Authorities use Brain Scanner to Convict Woman of Murder

The International Herald Tribune is running a story that seems more reminiscent of a Philip K. Dick novel (Minority Report, A Scanner Darkly) than actual news. It seems that some police stations in India have begun using brain-scanning devices as part of interrogation. Now, a woman in the state of Maharashtra has been convicted of killing her fiancé based on an EEG’s ability to detect her memories of committing said crime. Many scientists agree that brain scanning is a promising technology and that has great potential in lie detection. However, the scientific consensus is that the technology is unproven at best, making its use in a murder conviction quite worrisome.

Regardless of its current status, brain scanning will likely become part of the arsenal of tools used by law enforcement organizations around the world. Since the September 11th terrorist attacks the US government has poured money into developing better brain scanning technology. Israel, Singapore and the UK are among the countries that have expressed interest in the potential of the Indian technology.

The inevitable development of more accurate scanners forces us to address some uncomfortable questions. I am sure there would be little disagreement that this technology is a much better alternative to “enhanced interrogation techniques” like water boarding. At the same time though, the thought of an Orwellian world with thought police probing our memories is quite disturbing. At the very least, we will need to address the legal standing of mind probing in the US court system. Will the 5th amendment allow people to refuse brain scans or will they be treated more like DNA evidence, something that physically links someone to a crime? Given the erosion of our constitutional protections we have seen in recent years, we could be in store for some interesting new interrogation techniques.

McCain=Bush?

How come people can't see through McCain's transparent shifts in position?

Religious Right
McCain in 2000:
"Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance."

"Governor Bush swung far to the right and sought out the support of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. Those aren't the ideas that I think are good for the Republican party."

McCain in 2006:
He spoke at Liberty University upon Falwell's invitation, even calling him a "friend."

"I believe that the Christian Right has a major role to play in the Republican Party."


Abortion Rights
McCain in 2000:
"If we repeal Roe v Wade tomorrow, thousands of young American women will be performing illegal and dangerous operations."

McCain 2008:
"I do not support Roe v Wade and think it should be overturned."


Bush Tax Cuts
McCain 2004:
"I would clearly support not extending those tax cuts."

McCain 2008:
"I'll make the Bush tax cuts permanent."


Iraq War
McCain 2002:
"I am very certain that this military engagement will not be very difficult."

McCain 2006:
"Many of us fully understood from the beginning, [this] would be a very very difficult undertaking."

Dissecting abortion and crayfish

Today in my biology lab, which I just joined as a PhD student, my task was to dissect a crayfish and explore its nervous system. I spent a while trying to figure out the best way to kill the animal before slicing it open until I was told that you don't have to kill them first. In fact, in dissecting crayfish one is meant to keep them as 'alive' as possible while completing the task. As I removed potentially hazardous claws and legs, the crawfish's tail began to whip violently. So that was the next appendage removed. Finally, after extracting organs and whittling away all the muscle and connective tissue, I was left with the network of a now-unidentifiable creature's neurons. Remarkably, the neurons were still 'alive,' resting in a bath of saline solution. They're alive because they maintain the same properties and functions when resting in a petri dish as in the body of a crayfish. This led me to ask, "what is alive?" My advisor responded, "You tell me, what is alive?"

If a mutilated crayfish can still be considered alive, we may need to refine our definitions of 'life,' definitions that get so jumbled in debates of abortion and conception. As in the crawfish neurons, there's more to life than just meeting the biological definition of the term. The definition is more of a spectrum as there is definitely a distinction between a functioning organism and an organism that just has a few living parts. The harmonization of living parts to create an organism, is what makes humans, and all living beings so special. A fetus in a womb, however, is not yet a living organism, in my mind. Take it out of the womb and it will perish more quickly than a crawfish while being dissected. This may sound blunt but the point is, life is not just created. It is formed and transformed from what came before it, nurtured if you will.

For women who are not pregnant, one could say they 'waste' an egg each month (on average). How can we allow this destruction life? Given the right conditions, this egg could become a human, just as a fetus can. It seems some people are blinded by how their religious doctrine defines life, when life in the biological sense does not fit into a simple definition. Perhaps some argue that humans are moral beings and the spiritual aspect of their being is created at conception. In this case I turn to the fetus-on-a-table experiment. Place the few-month old fetus on your nightstand one night, and wake up the next morning next to a pile of dried up cells.

No one batted an eyelash when I tossed out my crayfish neurons, but human life is different, of course. But as humans in the United States, we are granted freedoms and choices which should not be regulated unless they impose on the freedoms and choices of others. How can the party that supports so much war to spread freedom be against ensuring its own citizens have their own freedoms?

Politics have been on the front burner of late, as you can probably tell from my reversions to the subject throughout this post. Today I bought a t-shirt proclaiming: "I am 48 years younger than John McCain." The t-shirt originated from a very interesting and aptly named blog: www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com. Check it out if you're curious or want a cool t-shirt.

Next on my shopping list is a shirt stating, "I've had a passport 13 years longer than Sarah Palin." How can anyone think she has even passable foreign policy experience? I'll save my rants against her policy positions for another day but it depresses me to think that if my neurons were in a saline-filled Petri dish, they would appear remarkably similar to Sarah Palin's.

Unemployment is Wonderful

Not working is really great. It’s been three weeks since my last paycheck from the Chicago Public Schools and I am feeling pretty good about things. I like living on couches and not having any responsibilities. Cash flow might get to be an issue soon, but I could always sign up for unemployment. Dan did that when he moved home before grad school and then took a five-week vacation in Peru. Talk about carving yourself a sweet sweet piece of fat from the “welfare state”.

Being unemployed gives you time to do all those things you could never find time to do when you were working: organize your .mp3’s, clean your house, workout, start a blog, and most importantly, look for the job you actually want.

I think that everyone should give unemployment a try, provided you have some savings you want to burn through.